Federal NDP falters, Conservatives
TORONTO September 16th, 2015 - In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1402 Canadian voters,
close to one third will vote Conservative in the coming federal election
(32%), compared to 3-in-10 who will vote NDP (30%) and just fewer who will vote
Liberal (28%). These results represent a sharp loss of vote share for the NDP
since last week (September 10 - 36%). At the same time, there has been a
slightly smaller increase for the Conservatives (from 28%). Few will vote Green
(6%) or Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for other parties (1%).
Conservatives lead in
Ontario, prairies, Alberta; NDP in Quebec, BC
In vote rich Ontario, where the parties have been roughly
tied, the Conservatives now lead (37%), the Liberals are second (31%) and the
NDP trail (24%). In strategic Quebec, the NDP are in front (38%), while the
Liberals (25%) and the Conservatives (20%) contend for second, while the Bloc
Quebecois is in third (13%). The Liberals dominate in the Atlantic provinces
(45%) and the other two parties tie for second (Conservatives - 24%, NDP -
26%). In the prairies, the Conservatives lead again (42%) and the Liberals
(27%) and NDP (28%) tie for second. In Alberta, it’s all Conservative (52%),
and the Liberals (22%) and NDP (20%) vie for distant second. The NDP leads in
BC (38%), and the Conservatives (29%) and Liberals (24%) strive for second
Switchers in each party
One quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2011 will vote NDP
now (24%), and a fifth of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time around
(21%). Just fewer Conservatives from 2011 are voting Liberal this time (16%)
and a tenth are voting NDP (9%). Very few past Liberals or New Democrats will
vote Conservative, though.
Conservative voters the most
Fully three quarters of Conservative voters are strong
supporters of their party (75%), while just more than one half of Liberals
(56%) or New Democrats (53%) are strong supporters. This supports the switching
hypothesis above, in that many Liberals and New Democrats will switch each
other’s parties, but not to the Conservatives.
If these results are projected up to the 338 seat House of
Commons, the Conservatives would take 138, 32 seats short of a majority, while
the NDP would be the Opposition with 113 seats. The Liberals would hold the
balance of power with 86 seats, the Greens would seat their leader and no other
party would be represented.
Liberals, NDP equally likely
to be second choice; not Conservatives
About one quarter of voters pick either the NDP (22%) or the
Liberals (24%) as their second choice party, but few pick the Conservatives
(7%). One half of Liberal voters pick the NDP as their second choice (53%),
while a similar proportion of New Democrats opt for the Liberals (47%). One
sixth of Liberals will pick the Conservatives second (16%), and a similar
proportion of Conservatives will return the favour (15%). Very few New
Democrats choose the Conservatives second (7%).
4-in-10 will never vote
Far more voters avoid the Conservatives (39%) than they do
the Liberals (12%) or the NDP (16%). Conservatives are especially likely to
never support New Democrats (38%) followed distantly by Liberals (22%). One
half of Liberals will never vote Conservative (51%) and two thirds of New
Democrats agree (67%). There is less distrust on this measure between the NDP
and the Liberals.
Conservatives more likely to
be seen as victors
The Conservatives (29%) and NDP (28%) are equally likely to
be seen as the victors in this electoral contest, while the Liberals trail
(23%). This represents improvement on this predictive measure for the
Conservatives since last week (September 10 - 26%) and a corresponding drop for
the NDP (from 33%).
Tom Mulcair still seen as
Three-in-ten voters see Tom Mulcair as the best Prime
Minister (30%), while one quarter think this description fits Stephen Harper
(25%). Fewer select Justin Trudeau (19%). These results represent a slight
decrease for Trudeau (from 22%).
Harper’s approval up sharply
Stephen Harper has seen his approval increase from less than
3-in-10 last week (April 10 - 29%) to one third today (33%), and his net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has increased from a very negative
-36 to a less negative -26. Approvals for Mulcair (50%) and Trudeau (46%) are
“It appears the
accepted view of the refugee crisis has been incorrect, and the Prime Minister
has benefitted significantly from his response to it. Our polling has shown no
majorities of Canadians urging more than a measured response to the crisis," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com
or at (416) 960-9603.