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The Forum PollTM Accurately Forecasts BC Election
Forum correctly called a Minority Parliament
TORONTO, May 25th – The Forum Poll successfully
predicted the outcome of the British Columbia provincial election of May 9th,
2017. Forum’s Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling methodology once again proves
to be a precise tool for measuring public opinion, accurately predicting that the
election would result in a minority parliament.
Of the six firms that polled the election,
Forum was second most accurate in terms of average deviation (.68%).
Forum predicted (39%) for the BC Liberals
whose actual share was (40.36%), (41%) for the NDP whose actual share was
(40.28%), (17%) for the Green Party whose actual share was (16.84%), and (3%)
for other parties, whose actual share was (2.52%)
Overall, it was another accurate prediction by Forum’s IVR methodology
within the calculated margin of error (+/- 3%).
Of the firms polling the BC election, Forum is the only one to
supplement its vote share predictions with seat projections.
Forum projected the Liberals to secure 42 seats (actual – 43), the NDP
to secure 42 seats (actual – 41), the Green Party to secure 2 seats (actual –
3), and another party/independent to secure 1 seat (actual – 0).
Accordingly, The Forum Poll’s seat projections were accurate with an
average deviation of 1.
“In the 2013 BC
election only Forum correctly predicted the Liberal majority. In 2017, however,
most pollsters performed far better, which is redemptive for the industry
overall. That said, we’ve once again proven that The Forum Poll is a highly
sensitive predictor of public opinion, as we measured the overall vote share
within two-thirds of one percentage point,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416) 930-9603.