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Ontario Liberals Tumble
NDP to serve as opposition in massive
Toronto, June 16th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among
1003 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, more than 4-in-10 (44%)
say they would support the Progressive Conservatives. Fewer than a quarter (23%)
say they would support the Liberals, with the same proportion (24%) saying they
would support the NDP. (7%) say they support the Green Party, and (2%) say they
would support another party.
likely to support the Progressive Conservatives include those aged 55-64 (50%),
males (52%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (56%) or $80,000-$100,000 (55%), living in
Southwestern Ontario (52%), and the least educated (50%) or with some college
or university (49%).
likely to support the Liberals include those aged 34 or younger (24%), 35-44
(25%), 65+ (25%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (30%), living in Toronto (31%), and
with a post-graduate degree (34%).
Respondents most likely to support the NDP
include those aged 34 or younger (27%), 35-44 (28%), or 45-54 (27%), earning
$20,000-$40,000 (35%), living in Northeastern Ontario (33%), and with a
college/university (27%) or post-graduate (25%) degree.
Conservatives expand majority, Liberals crash
If an election were held today, the
Progressive Conservatives would likely secure 87 seats, more than needed for a
majority in the 122-seat legislature.
The NDP would form the official opposition
with 26 seats. The Liberals would secure 9 seats, one seat more than the
minimum needed to form an official party in the Ontario Legislature. The
Liberals’ drop in support in Toronto and the GTA is largely the contributing
factor to their overall projected loss of seats.
Horwath popular; Wynne and Brown, not so
Kathleen Wynne’s approval is (15%), and her
disapproval (74%) is almost three-quarters. (11%) do not know whether to
approve or disapprove of the Premier’s performance. Her net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove is -59.)
Patrick Brown’s approval is more than a
quarter (29%), and his disapproval is just under a third (30%). The majority, (41%),
don’t know enough about Patrick Brown to offer an opinion. His net favourable
score is -1.
Andrea Horwath is still the most popular of
the three leaders with an approval of almost four in ten (38%), with
disapproval of just over a quarter (27%).
4-in-10 (36%) say they do not know about
Andrea Horwath. Her net favourable score is +11.
Brown best premier, Andrea Horwath just
More than a third (36%) believe that Patrick
Brown would make the best Premier of Ontario, with Andrea Horwath (20%) well
behind. Only (13%) believe Kathleen Wynne would be the best premier. A quarter
(23%) say none of the above would make the best premier, with (7%) saying they
“The post budget bump that the Liberals saw
in May is now completely gone and they see themselves likely serving as third
party in the Ontario Legislature, well behind even the second place NDP,” said
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.