Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Elections
Forum had the most accurate prediction for
the 2015 Federal Election and 6 provincial elections
TORONTO, July 2nd, 2017 – Among all
polling firms attempting to predict vote outcome, The Forum Poll proved to be
the most accurate in the 2015 Federal Election and in six of the last fourteen
No other polling firm as consistent as The
In the May 30th election in Nova
Scotia, The Forum Poll was the most accurate firm polling the election by far.
Not only was it the most accurate in predicting the overall vote share result
with a deviation of (1.0%), it was also the most accurate in predicting the
overall seat count with a deviation of only (.4) seats.
In the BC election of May 9th, 2017,
The Forum Poll was the second most accurate firm polling the election, with a
microscopic .68 percent deviation. While a number of pollsters attempted to
project the outcome of the election, Forum is the only firm that correctly
predicted the minority government, with a seat projection deviation of only 1
in an 87-seat legislature.
The Forum Poll was the third most accurate
firm polling the 2016 Manitoba election, held on April 19th. The
Forum Poll was the only firm to supplement its election prediction with seat
projections, which was accurate to 1.2 seats, in a 47-seat legislature.
Of the four firms polling the Saskatchewan
election of April 4th, 2016, Forum was the third most accurate, with
an average deviation of 1.1%, only two-tenths of a percentage point behind the
leading result. In a clear validation of The Forum Poll’s seat projection
methodology, in Saskatchewan was completely accurate: 51 seats for the
Saskatchewan Party and 10 for the NDP, which matched the actual result.
Out of all the
polling firms tracking the 42nd Canadian general election, Forum has
proven to be the most accurate. Forum successfully predicted the election
outcome within 0.7% average deviation. Furthermore, Forum was the only firm to
predict a Liberal majority government giving the Liberal party 40% of the vote,
and 171 seats in the October 18th final report. When it comes to
sample size and margin of error, Forum predicted the outcome within a margin of
error of +/- 3%.
In a field of eight polling firms, the Forum
Poll™ was fourth most accurate in predicting the outcome of the Alberta
provincial election of May 5, 2015. Forum’s Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
polling methodology again proves to be a precise tool for measuring public opinion,
accurately predicting that the NDP would form a majority government. This prediction was first made on April 22.
In the Sept. 22nd New Brunswick provincial
election Forum accurately predicted the results within our margin of error. The
final poll results found that the Liberals and PCs were all tied up, but the
Liberals managed to pull ahead and win a small majority. The final poll results
are within our margin of error (2.7%) of the final results (total deviation was
Among the seven polling firms who predicted the 2014 Ontario
Election, only Forum and one other correctly predicted a Liberal majority.
Forum predicted the Liberals would capture 41% of the vote; the actual results
(39%) fell within Forum’s margin of error (MoE was ±3%). Forum Research was the
only firm to predict the Liberal vote within the margin of error.
The Forum Poll
was the most accurate firm in predicting the 2014 Quebec election with an
average deviation of 1.17%. Out of the six firms who polled for the election,
Forum was the only one to predict a Liberal majority government. Most firms
called for a Liberal minority in Quebec.
In a triumph of
electoral polling, three competitive firms arrived at very similar and very
accurate predictions for the outcome of the Nova Scotia provincial election of
October 8th, 2013. Forum Research was the second most accurate, with
a total deviation of 1.6%, compared to 0.4% for Abacus Data and 2.4% for
Corporate Research Associates (CRA).
In the BC election held in May 2013, nine
different polling firms attempted to predict the election turnout. Forum was
the most accurate of the nine with a deviation of 1.6 across all parties, while
the least accurate was Justason with a deviation of 5.4. Forum was the only
firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government.
In the September 2012 election in Quebec three
of four polling firms accurately predicted the election outcome, while EKOS was
off by 4.1. Forum, Leger and CROP all were under 2 total percentage point
deviation off across all parties.
After the Alberta provincial election, it is
clear The Forum Poll™ conducted on April 22nd detected a last minute
voter swing, and predicted the final election results with greater accuracy
than other pollsters. Overall deviation of the poll’s findings from the actual
election results across all parties was 2.7– with the furthest in the pack,
Abacus, deviating by 4.7.
The interactive voice response (IVR) poll
conducted by Forum Research on November 5th predicted the outcome
with the greatest accuracy of all firms covering the Saskatchewan election.
Overall deviation of the poll’s findings from the
actual election results across all parties was 0.4, with the next closest firm
deviating by 1.5 -- and the furthest in the pack, Praxis, deviating by 2.6.
It was clear the interactive voice response
(IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on Oct. 3rd and 4thpredicted
the Ontario election outcome with absolute accuracy. Overall deviation of the
poll’s findings from the actual election results across all parties was a
marginal 1.9%, with the next closest firm deviating by 4.7% -- and the furthest
in the pack, IPSOS-Reid, deviating by 11.3%.
In a ranking of polling firms, Forum is
When ranking the polling firms based on
deviation The Forum PollTM was the most accurate. The Forum Poll
proved to be the most precise in the 2015 Federal Election and in six of the
last fourteen provincial elections.
record in predicting the outcome of the 2015 Federal Election and in Canadian
Provincial elections is unmatched, with our proprietary Forum Poll IVR polling
methodology proving its accuracy again and again. As we continue to refine our
techniques, and prove our methodology works, we will continually put our methods
to the test, which is why we’ve predicted twice as many elections in the last 8
years as our nearest competitor,” said Forum Research president Dr. Lorne