Conservatives Leading Over Liberal

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Conservatives leading over Liberals 

If an election were held today, Conservatives would secure majority

Toronto, March 5th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Pollamong 1301 Canadian voters, with those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (42%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a third (33%) saying they would support the Liberals.

1 in 10 (12%) say they would support the NDP, with a few (5%) supporting the Green Party, BQ (3%), or the People’s Party of Canada (4%), or another party (1%).

Respondents most likely to support the Conservatives include those who live in the Prairies (Alberta 69%), males (53%), between the ages of 35-44 (47%), and the most wealthy (49%).

 Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those who live in the Atlantic region (55%), those between the ages of 45 to 54 (36%), 55 to 64 (36%), and 65 and over (37%), females (41%), those earning $20k-$40k (38%) or $40k-$60k (41%), and those with post-graduate degrees (43%).

 If an election were held today, these results suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 185 seats. The Liberals would serve as the official opposition with 129 seats. The NDP would secure 18, the BQ 5, and the Greens 1.

Best PM: Scheer leading over Trudeau

Respondents were asked who they think would make the best PM, regardless of which party they plan to vote for, one-third (31%) say it’s Andrew Scheer and one-quarter (26%) say Justin Trudeau.

About 1 in 10 say Elizabeth May (9%) or Jagmeet Singh (7%).

One-quarter of respondents say they (27%) don’t know.

6-in-10 respondents disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as PM

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister, 6-in-10 respondents (60%) disapprove, while about a third approve (30%), and 1-in-10 (10%) don’t know.

 Scheer’s approval rate is equal to his disapproval rate

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of the opposition, one third (34%) of respondents approve, another third (34%) of respondents disapprove, and another third (32%) don’t know.

  4-in-10 respondents disapprove of Jagmeet Singh as leader of the NDP

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the NDP, nearly one-quarter (22%), 4-in-10 (38%) disapprove, and another 4-in-10 (40%) don’t know.

 4-in-10 respondents don’t know if they approve or disapprove of May

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of the Green Party, 4-in-10 (41%) of respondents don’t know whether they approve/disapprove, a little over one-quarter (27%) disapprove, and one-third (32%) approve.

Is Canada better or worse than in 2015?

When asked if Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over half stated it was worse (BTM2: 59%), with a third (35%) saying it’s much worse.

4-in-10 respondents (TOP2: 41%) say it is better, with about 1 in 10 (13%) saying it’s much better.

Respondents who say Canada is doing worse include, males (67%), those with secondary school or less (69%), and those living in the Alberta (80%) or Manitoba/Saskatchewan (78%), and those voting Conservative (90%).

Respondents who say Canada is doing better include, females (49%), those earning $40k-$60k (50%), those with post-graduate degrees (52%), those living in Québec (55%), and those voting Liberal (81%).

 

 "The SNC-Lavalin issue is allowing the Conservatives to maintain a healthy lead in the polls,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “This is a tumultuous time for the Trudeau government, and if they aren’t able to get the situation under control, it may be difficult to regain the ground that’s been lost over the past few months.”