Conservatives Lead, But the Gap Is Narrowing
Greens hit double digits
Toronto, June 11th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1633 Canadian voters, amongst those decided
and leaning, a third (34%) say they would support the Conservatives if an
election were held today.
3 in 10 (30%) say they would support the
Liberals, and about one-sixth say they would support the NDP (13%) or Greens
About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the BQ,
while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4%). Few (1%) are supporting
While support for most of the parties is stable,
the Greens have increased their support by four points since April (April 9th:
If these results were projected into seats, we
expect a Conservative minority government of 151 seats, with the Liberals
The NDP would win 27, the BQ would win 23, and the Greens would win 3.
sees approval from a third, disapproval from more than half
Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (34%) and
disapproval from more than half (56%), with about 1 in 10 (10%) saying they don’t
know. His net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).
sees disapproval from almost half
A third (33%) say they approve of Andrew Scheer, while
almost half (45%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (22%) say they don’t know.
Scheer’s net favourable score is -12 (approve-disapprove).
disapproval is equal to “don’t know”
A quarter (23%) say they approve of Jagmeet Singh,
while about 4 in 10 (40%) say they disapprove. 4 in 10 (37%) also say that they
don’t know. His net favourable score is -17 (approve-disapprove).
approval the highest
Just over 4 in 10 (44%) say they approve of Elizabeth
May, while a quarter (22%) say they disapprove. A third (33%) say they do not
know. Her net favourable score is +22, the only score in the positives (approve-disapprove).
“Support for the Federal parties
is mostly unchanged, but the landscape has shifted considerably,” said Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “A few percentage points have made
a big difference in the projection of the future government. The highlight of
this report is the strength of the Federal Green party; with a provincial Green
Party propping up an NDP government in BC, and other provincial Greens making
significant gains in Atlantic Canada, the Federal Greens could have a real
influence on the 2019 election, if their support continues to rise.”